An in-depth analysis by Citrini Research suggests that the rise of agentic AI could lead to significant economic disruption within the next two years. The report paints a stark picture of a not-so-distant future where unemployment rates might double, and the overall stock market value could plummet by over a third.
As AI capabilities advance, businesses are likely to reduce their workforce, particularly in white-collar roles, leading to increased layoffs. This trend can lead to decreased consumer spending by displaced workers, further pressuring firms to invest in AI technologies. This creates a dangerous cycle of economic decline, described by Citrini as a prolonged negative feedback loop affecting white-collar productivity growth.
The report highlights the risks of integrating AI agents into various sectors, emphasizing the potential consequences when outside contractors are supplanted by lower-cost in-house AI solutions. This approach builds on the “Death of SaaS” theory but extends its implications to any business model reliant on optimizing transactions among companies.
While the report has sparked debate online, with some experts urging caution regarding its predictions, it emphasizes the need for vigilance as businesses navigate these uncharted waters. Critics argue that the premise of fully entrusting purchasing decisions to AI remains contentious. However, Citrini suggests that many such decisions have already been delegated to external contractors, making this scenario more plausible than it might initially appear.
Key Points:
– Citrini Research predicts potential economic turmoil due to agentic AI.
– Unemployment could double, and stock market values might drop significantly.
– The cycle of AI investment and workforce reduction poses systemic risks.
– Integrating AI agents disrupts traditional business models and practices.
– Ongoing discussions highlight the need for careful evaluation of AI’s role in decision-making.
